Cannabis in Ukraine - question of time and leap of faith.

It is widely known that some reforms are being sold to the public as game changers but in fact their long-term outcomes are not that fantastic. On the other hand, there are changes that if executed properly are able to change markets, political scene and directly influence millions of people in a positive way.

Legalization of the medical cannabis of Ukraine is exactly the measure that should have been done years ago as it promises drastical leaps in many spheres once legalized.

The first real hot and practical discussion around medical cannabis started in Ukraine in 2015 and ever since there were a couple of attempts of its legalization. Despite the fact that every time it felt very close to passing the decision, medical cannabis permit was never a done deal - neither in 2015 nor 2019 nor 2021.

Surprisingly, during all the years of the attempts to advocate legalization and communicate it properly to the public, proper data was never used. The only strategy that was used multiple times was built solely on the emotional trigger that medical cannabis helps to save children’s lives and there are millions of potential children and not only, whose lives need medical cannabis. Nevertheless, there were no precise patients’ data, no numbers on the economic effect of legalization nor anything else. No surprise, that “one for all” advocacy strategy was not a success.

Magonova & Partners in partnership with the Kyiv School of Economics took a look at opportunities for cannabis in Ukraine from a different angle. In the term of 6 months, M&P and KSE were researching the economic, political and social effects of medical and recreational cannabis if legalized in Ukraine. Moreover, the market of industrial hemp and its usage was researched and modeled as well.

The key findings state that even at its lowest potential, medical cannabis in Ukraine is a billion-dollar market. But that’s not it. Potential market growth and its effect may show unprecedented speed and power. The research findings have clearly stated that the main trick while legalizing medical cannabis is creating a proper market infrastructure. That means that medical cannabis should be strictly tracked by a government but in a way that market growth will not be limited artificially.

The data of long-term social behavior tells us that with the high probability medical cannabis in Ukraine will be only a start. Once medical cannabis is legalized, the social mechanism launches a process of many years that most likely will bring Ukraine to legalization of the recreational cannabis in some way and the full usage of the industrial hemp.

When the time for the next attempt of legalization of medical cannabis comes, the methods of advocacy as well as communication should be built on the lessons learned from the previous years. As our research shows, there sure are many of them.

Base

Creating the infrastructure of the research
Defining the research questions

Alcohol in Ukraine

Collecting data on alcohol usage in Ukraine
Collecting data on alcohol usage effect in Ukraine
Comparison statistic among countries on alcohol usage
Researching alcohol market in Ukraine and its infrastructure
Researching tobacco market & infrastructure in Ukraine

Сannabis

Research of the characteristics and usage of medical cannabis
Research of the characteristics and usage of recreational cannabis
Research of the characteristics and usage of industrial hemp

Economy & Consumers:

Part 1 | Global Markets

Research of the global medical cannabis market - shadow and official
Research of the global recreational cannabis market - shadow and official
Research of the global industrial hemp market
Research of the global consumers / usage of medical cannabis / recreational cannabis and hemp markets
Research of the global secondary markets influenced by the medical cannabis / recreational cannabis and industrial hemp markets

Part 2 | North American markets

Researching the US cannabis market: main metrics / growth / jobs / comparison with other industries
Researching the California cannabis market: main metrics / growth / jobs / comparison with other industries
Researching Canadian cannabis market: main metrics / growth / jobs / comparison with other industries

Part 3 | North American markets effect

Part 4 | Modeling Ukrainian markets

Medical Cannabis

- Researching the illnesses to which medical cannabis is applicable and number of patients
- Researching the income (both official and shadow) and creating the income and priorities model for the consumer
- Modeling the consumer behavior in potential use of medical cannabis
- Modeling Ukrainian 4 medical cannabis market options and its infrastructure
- Modeling the market size, its growth and factors for the development

Economic Effect for Ukraine from Medical Cannabis

Modeling 4 scenarios how much income the country will get
Calculating 4 scenarios how many job will be created by each market scenario
Calculating cumulative economic effect from the new market

Recreational Cannabis

Developing a model of recreational cannabis cost in Ukraine if official
Developing the consumption model based on alcohol usage / US and Canada consumption model and users budget
Defining crucial elements of the opening of the recreational cannabis market
Modeling Ukrainian recreational cannabis market and its infrastructure

Economic Effect for Ukraine from Recreational Cannabis

Modeling 4 scenarios how much income the country will get based on the size of the market and its infrastructure
Modeling the growth of the market size together with the growth of the country's income based on the different tax models applicable.
Calculating 4 scenarios how many job will be created by each market scenario growth
Calculating cumulative economic effect from the new market

Industrial Hemp

Researching current usage of the industrial hemp
Defining how much land is a fit for industrial hemp / how much land is being currently licenced and used.
Researching the regulations and reasons why the industrial hemp in artificially limited
Modeling Full Ukrainian industrial hemp market and its infrastructure
Modeling the export possibilities of industrial hemp for Ukraine

Economic Effect for Ukraine from Industrial hemp

Modeling scenarios how much income the country will get based on the size of the market and its infrastructure.
Modeling the export possibility and growth
Calculating how much farmers will earn when full market is open
Calculating how much state will earn when full market is open
Calculating how many new jobs will be created once the full market is open

Social Effect Block

Criminalisation of cannabis

Researching on the criminalisation of cannabis - how many people are imprisoned, what’s their average imprisonment term, how much imprisonment costs for the country.
Researching the tendencies of imprisonment for cannabis usage and rising costs of the imprisonment
Calculating the effect of the decriminalization of the cannabis and hence of the imprisoned - how much money would country save

Alcoholism

Researching the comparative statistics of the alcoholism in Ukraine and internationally
Defining the constraints of the cost of the alcoholism
Calculating overall state losses from the alcoholism
Calculating how much less were alcoholism rates if the recreational cannabis would be legalized
Calculating the minimized loses for the state in case recreational cannabis would be legalized

Domestic Violence

Defining the rates of the domestic violence in Ukraine
Calculating the losses for the country due to the domestic violence
Researching on how medical / recreational cannabis lower the domestic violence rates
Calculating the saving for the country from domestic violence damages if cannabis medical or recreational would be legalized

PTSD

Researching on major characteristics & treatment of PTSD
Calculating how many people in Ukraine are currently experiencing PTSD and are in danger of experiencing in in the nearest years
Calculating the state losses using the probability that in some patients PTSD will turn to domestic violence / alcoholism
Defining how medical cannabis would improve the treatment of the PTSD patients
Calculating savings and opportunities for the state in case medical cannabis is legalized and used for the PTSD treatment

Advocacy Preparation

Developing a concept of advocacy for cannabis which is based on the data to illustrate the economic, social and political effect of the medical cannabis / recreational cannabis and industrial hemp full usage for every kind of stakeholder. A concept includes thorough research on the Ukrainian political arena and development of the new kind of political platform.

Political Block

Creating a current political map including number of votes / ideological background and political tendencies
Defining blind spots in the structure of the ideological development of the major parties
Comparing the number of voters and % of people Ukraine who vote to the potential number of customers of the medical and recreational cannabis
Collecting and analyzing data of the current Ukraine’s citizen support for the medical cannabis legalization
Development of the preliminary ideology for the political platform which represents economical and social liberalization measures including cannabis legalization
Defining the first steps to organize a political platform

GR block

Researching and creating the stakeholders map who influenced the decision on the cannabis for the past 7 years
Researching the previous and current advocacy campaigns with pointing out methods, their efficiency and results
Researching and visualizing the interconnections of the political influence in Ukraine including clergy, shadow markets, law enforcement institutions and other stakeholders
Preliminary developing a front of the stakeholders who can and with high probability will support the medical cannabis legalization in Ukraine
Defining the first critical stakeholders and tactics on the developing the relationships with them

Legal block

Analysis of the all the cannabis-related legislative initiatives for the time of Independence of Ukraine
Analyzing the hidden and shadow mechanisms implemented in the legislative initiatives with the defining of whose interests might have influenced the norms and mechanisms implemented.
Researching on the key stakeholders who previously initiated the cannabis legalization

PR block

Analyzing the previous PR campaign to support medical cannabis legalization, methods, efficiency and the results
Development a multi-layer PR strategy that uses the data from the research and focuses on the key stakeholders
Development of the umbrella PR campaign which starts the public advocacy of the medical cannabis legalization

Organizational block

Designing a roadmap of the legalization which included GR / PR and political activities
Defining the budget / outcomes and terms for the each part of the project
Defining the number and qualifications of the internal and external specialists and partners which are needed for the execution of the project

Materials

Developing a presentation of the work which includes economical / political / social and advocacy part
Creating specialized materials for the stakeholders